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Xie changjun, former deputy general manager of China guodian group, made an in-depth analysis and outlook on the development trend of China's renewable energy in the 2018 China electric power development plan BBS recently concluded.
The Chinese government has proposed that the proportion of non-hydropower renewable energy in the total electricity consumption of the whole society should reach 9% by 2020, and wind power and photovoltaic power generation should only account for 6.5% of the total electricity generation in 2017, which is still far from the target.Relevant planning shows that from 2016 to 2020, China's new wind power production will be more than 79 gigawatts, and it will reach 210 gigawatts in 2020, including about 5 gigawatts of offshore wind power.More than 68 million kilowatts of solar power will be added to production, and 110 million kilowatts will be added in 2020.
It can be seen that in the future, the national policy of restricting coal power and supporting the development of renewable energy will not change.The total amount of hydropower resources is restricted, the development cost is rising, and the future growth space is limited.Nuclear power construction is restricted by the overall social atmosphere, and its development is uncertain.Biomass, tidal, geothermal and other forms of power generation due to resources, costs, technical constraints and other reasons, the scale of development is not large;Taking all factors into consideration, wind power and photovoltaic will be the main forces for low-carbon development and energy transformation in the future.
Wind power development pays more attention to the synchronization of scale and benefits
In the past few years, power rationing has become more and more severe due to various reasons, such as overcapacity in power generation and mismatch between power supply and power grid development speed, which has become the biggest bottleneck hindering the healthy development of renewable energy in China.In 2017, China will abandon 55 billion KWH of water, 41.9 billion KWH of wind and 7.3 billion KWH of light, totaling more than 100 billion KWH.
Faced with the problem of power limit, wind power investors tend to be more rational, slow down the pace of progress, and start to pay attention to the quality and efficiency of development instead of the speed of scale.In 2017, wind power added 15 gigawatts of grid-connected capacity, the lowest in nearly five years.It is expected that in the next three years, China's wind power market will maintain rational scale growth, with an average annual increase of about 15 to 18 gigawatts of onshore wind power and 1 gigawatts of offshore wind power, taking into account both incremental scale and inventory efficiency.
Wind power, photovoltaic absorption environment will be greatly improved
According to the national energy administration, wind and light abandoning rates in the three northern regions should be controlled within 5% by 2020, and electricity rationing should be basically implemented in other regions.State grid held a press conference in January 2017, which clearly proposed that the contradiction between wind and light abandoning should be effectively alleviated from 2017 to 2018, and the absorption of new energy should be fundamentally solved by 2020. The rate of wind and light abandoning should be controlled within 5%, and 20 specific measures should be proposed to promote the absorption of new energy.
Photovoltaic will be the first to achieve affordable Internet access
Thanks to the continuous improvement of equipment manufacturing technology, the cost of photovoltaic projects has dropped by 90% in the past decade.Photovoltaic electricity price is also declining year by year. Since this year, centralized photovoltaic has been reduced to 0.50 ~ 0.70 yuan/KWH, while distributed photovoltaic is 0.32 yuan/KWH.In march this year, the lowest bidding price of 8 projects in the third batch of photovoltaic leader bases was only 3.6 ~ 12.5 points/KWH different from the local benchmark price of desulphurization coal burning.Compared with photovoltaic, the cost of wind power development is not falling so fast, and wind power will go through a relatively slow process to realize parity Internet access.
Offshore wind power began to enter the stage of large-scale development
In the next two to three years, China will usher in a period of great development of offshore wind power, and the development process will speed up significantly.
At present, several coastal provinces have announced the 13th five-year plan for the development of offshore wind power.Jiangsu province plans to put into operation 3.5 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2020.Fujian province plans to build 13.3 gigawatts of offshore wind power and put it into production in 2020.Guangdong province plans to start construction of 12 gigawatts of offshore wind power and put more than 2 gigawatts into operation by 2020.By the end of 2020, China's installed offshore wind power capacity is expected to exceed 5 gigawatts.
In the future, the main battlefield of offshore wind power will be expanded from the inshore intertidal zone within 10 km to the offshore sea area of 30-40 km.From the coastal areas of jiangsu to fujian, zhejiang, hainan, shandong, hebei and other coastal provinces.In the future, offshore wind power projects will be transformed from small-scale trials and demonstrations of 50 ~ 150MW to large-scale continuous chip development of over 300MW.At present, 2.5-4mw wind turbine is the main type of offshore wind turbine.In the next three years, the new units will still be mainly 4-5mw.After 2020, 5-6mw unit technology will gradually mature and become the main model.8MW and above model start to do prototype test;4MW units will still retain a certain market space.Large diameter single pipe pile will still be the main construction technology of intertidal zone and offshore wind power.After 2025, China will gradually explore the development of deep-sea wind power, and floating foundation will be the focus of research.Technological progress will bring about the space for reducing the cost of offshore wind power construction;At present, the unit kilowatt cost of China's offshore wind power is between 16,000 and 20,000 yuan, far lower than the 3,000 to 4,000 euros (21,900 to 29,200 yuan) of European offshore projects.
The technological progress of wind power units will open up wider market space
In the next five years, with the technical upgrading of the fan manufacturing industry, the mainstream onshore wind power models will be wind power units with higher efficiency of 2 ~ 3MW and above.Fan from small and medium-sized capacity to large, intelligent development has become an inevitable trend.In the plain low wind speed, high shear area through ascension height of tower drum (increased from 80 m to 120 m or 140 m), wind speed can be increased 0.5 ~ 0.8 m/s, application of China's advanced 3 mw level, 140 meters large leaf type, average annual utilization hours can be made of more than 2000 hours to 2500 hours, technology dividend will bring more broad development space for the wind power industry.
Replacing the old with the new will create new opportunities for the wind power market
European wind power operators generally start to consider about 15 years of operation of wind farms in the original equipment to carry out "large pressure on the small" transformation.China's early production of nearly 3gw wind power projects will reach or approach the life cycle in 2020.More than 40 gigawatts of projects put into operation before the end of 2010 will gradually usher in the peak period of substitution in the five years after 2020, and the market space is very broad.With the continuous progress of large-capacity and high-efficiency unit technology, the profitability of the new units after transformation is stronger, which will become a new profit growth point for wind power operators in the future.
At the same time, it will also promote the third-party operation and maintenance market, and professional operation and maintenance companies will usher in important business opportunities.
Emphasis on environmental protection wind power development will return to the "three north" region
At present, with the gradual improvement of the power market, the "three north" regions with severe power rationing will usher in a more rational and healthy development environment.More than ten cross-region uhv transmission projects planned and constructed by the power grid have been put into production intensively in recent years, providing the technical conditions for cross-region wind power consumption.After the quota system is officially implemented, cross-regional power transmission will become the main way to absorb wind power in the "three northern regions". By 2020, the situation of wind abandoning and power limiting will be greatly improved.Large blade set technology will break the traditional IEC wind farm classification standard and improve the unit load by optimizing the control strategy. Large blade set can also be applied in the "three north" area with high wind speed, and the economic benefits of wind power projects will be more considerable at that time.It can be predicted that from 2020 to 2025, with the factors of land resources, environmental protection and the improvement of the northern power limit environment, the main battlefields of wind power development in China will return to the "three north" regions from the central, eastern and southern regions.
In the middle, eastern and southern regions of China with good vegetation coverage, some wind farms fail to pay attention to soil and water conservation and vegetation restoration, causing a certain degree of ecological damage.Environmental protection problems caused by wind power development have attracted great attention from government departments, and some provinces have suspended the development of wind power.In the future, the central government will have stricter requirements on the ecological and environmental protection of the project. Meanwhile, the administrative examination and approval for the completion of environmental protection inspection and acceptance will be changed to the project legal person unit's self-acceptance and acceptance for social supervision, and the owner will bear greater environmental risks and legal responsibilities.In order to reduce their own development risks, developers will also pay more attention to the project environmental protection and vegetation restoration work, to achieve synergistic growth of enterprise benefits and environmental benefits.