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"531 New Deal" forced the photovoltaic industry to speed up the affordable Internet journey.Although this also forces some enterprises to be busy with the market and have no time for research and development, from the general trend, in order to create a better project return rate in the era of parity and activate the enthusiasm of downstream investment, more and more enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry are actively "improving efficiency" rather than simply "reducing cost" to achieve the goal.In the face of the continuous sales of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules, this game has formed the support and provided fertile soil for the incubation of new technologies.
With the gradual development of efficient battery, tracking system, optimization design and other full set of efficient ecological chain, efficient technology began to feed back the industry, accelerate the process of affordable Internet access.
Especially in the photovoltaic industry to accelerate the parity of "531" New Deal "under the background of online campaign, the local declaration and access to the national energy administration approved the first parity project - shandong dongying city estuary photovoltaic market trading projects (hereinafter referred to as the" project in dongying estuary ") operator, said it will use the most advanced HJT components, in order to realize the promise without state subsidies, make HJT technology has become the industry focus.
Recently, this article first author and the "securities journal" reporter interviewed one of dongying estuary project investor, ciic (taixing) power technology co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as the "ciic power"), chairman of Peng Dexiang, he said, after a rigorous experimental measurement, HJT components than other technical route of high efficient components ranging from 10% to 30% of capacity gain, compared with the conventional component, HJT components used in fish light complementary and flat uniaxial tracking system overall account for more than 44%, "based on this,We are confident that project IRR (internal rate of return) with HJT components at a reasonable price is at least one percentage point higher than other existing solutions.
Efficient component sales are in demand
In spite of 2017 years, the conventional crystalline silicon technology is still the mainstream (occupy the market share of more than 70%), but since the second half of 2017, especially to the national energy administration "leader plans to" guide, the large-scale application of new technologies such as PERC also, it is understood that the current love xu, ja in major battery manufacturers have almost complete the transformation of the PERC battery (and are) for double sided PERC technology.
It is understood that the major battery manufacturers in China are now working hard to improve battery efficiency to meet the needs of the third group of leaders and prepare for the fourth group of leaders.Now it seems that under the background of the "531 new policy", the third batch of front-runner projects and the fourth batch of front-runner projects revealed by the national energy administration that will be launched in time in the second half of 2018 are likely to dominate China's domestic photovoltaic market in the second half of this year.
While PERC technology is hot, a number of new production capacity built based on HJT technology (heterojunction) is emerging, which also attracts the attention of the industry.According to peng dexiang, the current capacity of HJT battery is limited. In addition to preferential supply of market-oriented trading projects, HJT battery will focus on advanced technology leader base projects and high-end overseas markets.
According to the third batch of "leader plan" documents: to obtain full score of the application leader base, the efficiency of polycrystalline components should reach 17.9%, namely 295W power;To get the full score of the technical leader base, the component efficiency should reach 19.4%, that is, the power is 320W.In order to obtain full score of the application leader base, the efficiency of the single crystal component needs to reach 18.7%, that is, the power is 310W.To get the full score of the technical leader base, the component efficiency needs to reach 20.4%, that is, the power is 335W.
For this standard, some industry insiders believe that the market efficient components production capacity can meet the demand of application and meet leader seems to be no problem, "but to be able to achieve represent the future direction of technology leading standard and meet the supply, production capacity is in short supply, and even some products actually cannot reach when declare at the time of the standard."An insider who did not want to be named told the securities daily.
It is the leader's plan, the efficiency demand in the affordable era and the demand for efficient components in some overseas markets (Japan, etc.), especially the role of the technical leader's guidance, that makes the sales of efficient components in China show a tight trend.
It is reported, the technology that faces technology pacemaker inside course of study at present (also call its to be super pacemaker inside course of study) has HJT, n-pert, IBC to wait for super-efficient technology.From the perspective of production capacity alone, HJT heterojunction technology is the one with the most production capacity scale support.
"By the end of 2018, domestic HJT battery efficiency is about 23-23.4%, and is expected to reach 24% in 2019, reaching the limit of conventional PERC. The goal is to further improve the efficiency to 24.5 percent by 2020."According to wang wenjing, "at present, it can be inferred from the three elements that PERC batteries, especially double-sided PERC battery technology, still have at least three years' development space, but if 24% or higher efficiency is achieved, it needs to be achieved through HJT or its superposition technology.
Public data shows, the current domestic main HJT enterprise ciic on power, can the jin jun, fujian stone, peng, and other enterprises, including the maximum capacity of ciic heterojunction domestic power HJT capacity of 160 mw, other enterprise capacity even extrapolate that the parties to the HJT components on the market capacity will be able to meet the needs of the technical leader base, there is still a question.
HJT still needs to further reduce costs and increase efficiency
In addition to production capacity, HJT heterojunction components are recognized by the industry as having many advantages such as simple process flow, matte attenuation, no power attenuation (the battery itself), excellent low temperature coefficient and so on.
As for HJT, wang wenjing, a researcher and doctoral supervisor at the institute of electrical and industrial technology of the Chinese academy of sciences, and the first author of this paper and a reporter from securities daily, said that the advantages and disadvantages of battery technology should be evaluated from three factors: cost, efficiency and life."At present, the cost of ordinary battery is the best, but the efficiency is the lowest. PERC battery manufacturing cost is high, but the efficiency is high. HJT battery has the highest efficiency and great potential in the future, but the cost is still high."
However, peng dexiang said the low attenuation and long life of HJT batteries, which generate electricity from both sides, are the reasons why dongying estuary project has no subsidy."Non-silicon cost and system cost can be saved through high-efficiency components. Meanwhile, double-sided power generation can increase power generation, while the kilowatt-hour cost of high-efficiency products can be reduced."
According to the data released by ciic power, under normal application environment, HJT battery generates 30% more electricity than ordinary battery. In the fish-light complementary power station, the power generation increases by more than 42%. With the flat uniaxial tracking system, the additional power generation can exceed 50%.According to the data of sanyo, the founding company of HJT, using biaxial tracking in Hokkaido, Japan, heterogeneous junction batteries can increase the power generation by as much as 68%. Meanwhile, the 20-year HJT component attenuation test published by sanyo shows that the annual attenuation is only 0.1%, and the service life can reach 35 to 40 years.Based on sanyo's report and ciic's own data model calculations, peng believes that HJT batteries can generate two to two and a half times more power over the plant's entire life cycle.
Wang wenjing also believes that the cost of HJT battery is expected to be rapidly reduced by means of silicon wafer, silver slurry, target material cost reduction, equipment localization and other means, and at the same time to achieve GW level of production capacity.
On this basis, the Peng Dexiang introduces, at present the new glass, feng adenauer as bullish on international equipment manufacturers such as the technology, already signed agreement with ciic power, through the equipment investment and other forms, and set up factories in the domestic, implement equipment costs have fallen sharply, the HJT batteries will be able to play the advantages of simple production process.Xu xin, head of ciic power technology, also told the securities daily that "although all mainstream component companies have launched full marks for the technology leader, few of them can achieve this goal with stable mass production. Therefore, many power station owners take the initiative to find ciic power and hope to buy HJT components".
The original title: "531 New Deal" forced parity online speed up the country's first unsubsidized photovoltaic project will be landing