"In 2018, China's new onshore wind power installations will be about 21.5GW. In the next five years, China's onshore wind power installations will remain above 20GW annually.From the perspective of policy and environment, China's onshore wind power market continues to show a warming trend.Luan dong, an analyst with bloomberg new energy finance, made an analysis at the "bloomberg new energy finance 2018 wind power seminar" recently.
Why will China's onshore wind power market continue to improve in the future?
Luan dong thinks, it is overland abandon wind condition continues to improve.In the first half of 2018, the national average curtailment rate dropped to 9 percent from 12 percent last year.At the regional level, wind abandon in some northern provinces has improved significantly, especially gansu and jilin, which are in the "red alert" region, with their wind abandon rates dropping to 20% and 6% respectively.
Second, benefited from the seventh batch of subsidies issued by the state.From the perspective of the four listed wind power operators, the accounts receivable and turnover days of longyuan power, huaneng new energy, datang new energy and huadeng fuxin have been significantly increased in 2017.
Third, the gradual popularization of new financial instruments.Huaneng and state power investment corporation issued 530 million yuan and 4.5 billion yuan of asset-backed notes and bonds respectively from 2017 to 2018.Longyuan power received 4.9 billion yuan in subsidies in the first half of this year through factoring of receivables.
Bloomberg new energy finance predicts that China's onshore wind power installation structure will be further optimized in the future, continuing to shift from the north to the south."Up to now, China's onshore wind power reserve capacity totals about 126GW and has locked in subsidies, which will not be affected by future bidding pressure.By region, reserves in shandong, hubei, shanxi, guangxi, jiangxi and jiangsu have to some extent exceeded those in traditional wind-power provinces such as xinjiang and gansu.LuanDong said.
"From 2023 to 2050, China's onshore wind power market has the potential to exceed 1TW."Especially in 2030-2040, new onshore wind power units will be more economical than coal power units running at that time.At that point, China's onshore wind capacity will increase significantly.
What is the most important factor influencing the future development of wind power in China?Luan said the flexibility and marketization of the power system are decisive factors for the long-term development of wind power in China.
According to the data released by China telecom union, 14 provinces and regions have participated in wind power market transactions.In the first half of 2018, large power generation groups participated in market-oriented trading in yunnan, accounting for 68% of the province's total power generation, and heilongjiang, xinjiang, ningxia and gansu respectively accounted for about 50% of the total power generation of each province.
"In the short term, at present, some provinces and regions have 'made an issue' of the guaranteed utilization hours of wind power projects and their corresponding fixed feed-in tariff. Provinces and regions such as xinjiang, gansu and heilongjiang have cut the guaranteed utilization hours to increase the basic guarantee hours.Provinces such as yunnan, sichuan and qinghai use hydropower directly to surf the Internet for hours, or the monthly price of hydropower matching.On the one hand, some provinces have failed to meet the central target of guaranteed utilization hours.On the other hand, even if the guaranteed hours target is met and the electricity price does not reach the benchmark feed-in tariff level, more and more electricity is being traded at a low price in the market.LuanDong said.
It is understood that from the perspective of huaneng new energy, datang new energy and longyuan electric power, the marketable traded electricity accounted for 25-30% of the total power generation in the first half of this year, significantly higher than the same period in 2016.
In terms of electricity price discount, bloomberg new energy finance pointed out that huaneng new energy and datang new energy increased significantly in electricity price discount in 2017, but in the first half of 2018, the two companies maintained a stable electricity price discount.
According to the data of provincial power trading centers, there are currently four forms for wind power to participate in market-oriented trading, namely direct purchase of power by large users, substitution of electric power (power generation right trading), cross-provincial market trading, and winter heating trading.
"Nationwide, the price discount for direct electricity purchase by large users is between 20% and 40%, and the price discount for cross-provincial and cross-regional transactions is between 20% and 30%.In xinjiang and gansu, large consumers buy electricity directly and trade across provinces and regions at discounts of 60-80%.The price discount for electricity substitution transactions is basically more than 50 percent, and the price discount for heating in winter ranges from 70 percent to 90 percent.Luan dong told reporters.
Original title: boxin energy finance: China's onshore wind power market continues to recover